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“… But monetary policy may not be enough. Why? There are two main reasons.

First, the transmission mechanism for monetary policy is damaged. While cutting interest rates is still effective, it may not work to stimulate investment and consumption as fast as usual. Banks have suffered substantial capital losses and thus want to consolidate their balance sheets and avoid taking on additional risk. Moreover, normally low-risk assets (such as jumbo mortgages in the US) are at present regarded as higher-risk. These impediments may slow down the positive effects of monetary policy.

Second, there is a risk that if a slowdown really takes hold, it will be hard to shake off. The US and some emerging markets have a history of bouncing back quickly. Other countries, including some in Europe and some in the developing world, have traditionally found a rapid recovery to be more difficult…”

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